Yesterday's Weather

Here’s how it works. First, the Team determines their average Velocity for the past three Sprints, adjusted for team size. For example, if one person of a five-person Team is on vacation for the entire Sprint in which 50 points of work is completed, the Team's raw Velocity (50) should be divided by 80% (4 instead of 5 Team members) for a normalized Velocity of 60 points. Normalized velocity is the number of points you would expect the team to complete if all team members are available full time.

 

During the next Sprint Planning, the team determines what the their percent capacity will be for the upcoming Sprint. If a fully staffed Team has five members who all work full time, but one team member will be absent  for a day in the coming week-long Sprint, the team’s capacity will be 96%. (Be careful to only correct for major team member absences and not try to over-correct for minor changes in capacity.)

 

Finally, multiply the team’s normalized velocity by its percent capacity for the coming Sprint to determine the targeted points for the next Sprint. This technique is quick, accurate, and Jeff says that he would not run a Scrum without including this Pattern.

 

You may also want to factor in a Sprint buffer to account for Interruptions during the Sprint.

 

Here is Scrum Inc.'s Yesterday's Weather Tool. It does all the math for you.